The Defeat of the 10th candidate Decide
In view of the elections going to the Rajya Sabha on March 23, UP has become a question of UP’s 10th seat reputation. This is because the BSP has made the former MLA MLA Bhimrao Ambedkar as its candidate for the seat. On the other hand, it has become important for the BJP because if the BSP candidate wins this seat, it is certain that the SP-BSP combine will be stamped in 2019. The BJP also understands that in the event of this happening, a big challenge can be made for it, as per the media reports, if the SP-BSP combine is held, the BJP can lose 50 seats in UP.
This matter has also become interesting because BSP supremo has already announced that their coordination with SP is currently in bye-elections and in the Rajya Sabha elections. In the Gorakhpur and Fulpur bye-elections, the BSP was successful in transferring the SP candidate to the vote bank, on which, the SP won the victory by defeating the BJP. Now, in the Rajya Sabha elections, the SP’s turn is that they win their votes by transferring their votes into BSP’s account. If SP fails to do so, then the BSP can screw on its possible alliance with the BSP. BJP’s strategy is to defeat the BSP candidate in the Rajya Sabha so as to prevent this alliance from happening right now.
Mathematics of votes
In this episode, BJP President Amit Shah has congratulated him on meeting with his colleague Suhdev Bharatiya Samaj Party (Subhaspa) leader Omprakash Rajbhar in UP. In the Yogi government, Om Prakash Rajbhar was angry with BJP for some time and he had made a rebellion in the Rajya Sabha elections. Therefore, considering the severity of the spot, Amit Shah did not delay meeting the state. Your party has already declared support to BJP. Thus, BJP has made complete arrangements to keep its 324 votes in its own right.
Tension to SP-BSP
There are 10 elections out of 31 state seats in the state. Of these, it decided to go to account of eight BJP and one SP. For the 10th position, the BSP has fielded its candidate by adjusting to the SP. To win a seat in the Rajya Sabha, 37 votes are needed. There are 19 BSP MLAs and 47 MLAs of SP. After winning a candidate of SP, he will have 10 votes more. Apart from this, a vote of seven Congress and RLD also supported by the BSP. Thus, the BSP is getting 37 votes, but the role of SP leader Shivpal Yadav and Naresh Agarwal is very important.
One big reason for this is that after winning the BJP’s eight candidates, it will have 28 votes more. Therefore, to win his ninth candidate, he needs only nine votes. That is why the BJP and the BSP legislators also have the eyes of the BJP who wish to contest the elections on their ticket in the next election. BJP has got support of three independents in this episode. Apart from this, the only MLA of Nishad party has got support. This is interesting because Pravin Nishad, the son of the founder of Nishad party, lives in Gorakhpur in Lok Sabha by-election on SP’s ticket.
Angry over the absence of a Rajya Sabha ticket from the SP, Naresh Agarwal has taken the charge of BJP. According to sources, in the form of its political cost, he has assured the BJP that his son Nitin Agrawal, SP MLA from Hardoi, will vote in favor of BJP. If such a single vote gets reduced then the BSP candidate not able to reach the Rajya Sabha.
Shivpal Yadav in the SP marginalized. The saga of their relationship with the SP leadership is evident. Apart from this, Shivpal’s relationship with BSP is bitter after the 1995 guest house scandal. In such a situation, the possibility of cross voting in favor of BJP of its faction not ruled out.