Even after SP + BSP, defeating BJP in UP is not easy ... understand mathematics
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) president Mayawati has announced in Karnataka on May 7 that the 2019 Lok Sabha election will be fought by combine with her party Samajwadi Party (SP). The kind of performance that this coalition has done in the by-election of Gorakhpur and Phulpur, is going through such a message as if this alliance will annihilate BJP in UP in 2019. Its direct reason is that in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, where BJP and its allies got votes of 43.3 per cent in UP, the SP got 22.2 per cent, the BSP got 19.6 per cent and the Congress got 7.5 per cent votes. The vote of the three parties is 49.3 percent.
In 2014 BJP won 14 seats for more than 50 percent votes
In the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP and its allies won 73 seats in UP. Out of these 14 seats were such that the BJP got 50 percent or more votes. That is, even if all the parties are united on these seats, the BJP's stand is huge. Incidentally, most of these seats are from the urban area. It can be speculated that even after the SP-BSP combine, it is not easy for them to compete with the BJP in the cities.
However, Gorakhpur and Phulpur seats also won by BJP for more than 50 per cent of the vote, and this time the party lost in by-election. But it should also noted here that the Prime Minister does not jump in the bye election, whereas in the general elections, he the same everywhere.
BJP got more than 45 percent votes in 15 seats
In the last Lok Sabha elections, there were 15 seats in the UP which the BJP had won 45 to 50 per cent of the votes. In the situation of coalition, the BJP's claim on these seats not underestimated.
SP-BSP weakened without Congress at 15 seats
Although there ample possibility that Congress join in UP when there a big coalition, but nothing said about this so far. Congress had fought separately in Gorakhpur and Phulpur. The situation is not clear at the moment. Even then, look at the last Lok Sabha elections, 15 Lok Sabha seats were on which the SP-BSP vote was less than the BJP's vote. That is, till the Congress or Ajit Singh's national Lok Dal gets together in these seats, it will be difficult for the coalition to overcome the BJP. Out of these 15 seats, 7 seats are where the BJP won more than 45 percent of the votes. In this way, in total, 37 seats are the ones which will be heavily dependent on the BJP's claiming coalition.
Booth management and candidate selection will be important
See the results of the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP won by winning more than 50 percent of the votes. They were all hypofiles. That is, with the candidates being strong, the BJP's vote increased sharply. Similarly, even if the opposition wiped out in the last Lok Sabha elections, Mulayam Singh and Sonia Gandhi won by big margin. Now, when the votes of both the NDA and the Maha coalition will differ only, then the candidate's selection will be important. The candidate on which the candidate will have five percent of his own vote, can turn the election towards him.